Scott Colom has won Mississippi’s Senate race, delivering the state’s first Democratic victory in the contest for the chamber in more than four decades and becoming the first Black man elected to the Senate by Mississippi voters.
Mr Colom defeated Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by about half a percentage point, despite Donald Trump carrying Mississippi by almost 23 points two years ago. The result makes his victory the reddest Senate seat flipped by a Democrat in a year of upheaval for the chamber.
His win came after a close count in which outstanding postal and provisional ballots delayed the result. It also made him only the third Black senator in Mississippi’s history, following Hiram Revels and Blanche Bruce, who were elected by the state legislature during Reconstruction.
Black turnout proved decisive in Mississippi
Mr Colom’s campaign relied on strong participation among Black voters, who account for nearly 40 per cent of Mississippi’s population, while also making gains among white voters.
Turnout in several majority-Black counties approached levels seen in the 2024 presidential election, an unusually strong showing for a midterm contest. In some majority-Black neighbourhoods, participation was higher than it had been two years earlier.
Black voters made up an estimated 33 per cent of the electorate, compared with 30 per cent in 2024. An estimated 91 per cent supported Mr Colom, according to Times Voter Trends.
He also won about 25 per cent of white voters, a significant performance in a state where white voters have been more strongly Republican than those in any other state in the 2020 and 2024 elections.
The largest county-level shift towards Mr Colom came in DeSoto County, a suburban area near Memphis where the Black population has grown rapidly. He carried the county by seven points, representing a 31-point swing from its 2024 presidential result.
Younger voters were another important part of his coalition, backing Mr Colom by 30 points. Near Jackson State University, 375 of the 376 votes reported so far went to him.
Hyde-Smith underperformed other Republicans
Ms Hyde-Smith’s record of trailing other Republican candidates also contributed to the upset. In the 2018 special election, her winning margin was 11 points smaller than that of Roger Wicker, Mississippi’s other senator.
When she retained her seat in 2020, she ran seven points behind Mr Trump’s statewide margin, the largest gap recorded by any incumbent Republican senator.
This year, Republicans won the statewide House vote by five points, but Ms Hyde-Smith lost to Mr Colom. Her weakest performance compared with other Republicans came in the whiter eastern half of the state, including Oktibbeha County, where Mr Colom is district attorney.
The race had attracted little national attention. No election forecaster rated it closer than “likely Republican”, and no non-partisan poll was carried out in Mississippi. The result nevertheless combined high Black turnout, shifts among white and younger voters, and Ms Hyde-Smith’s underperformance to produce a historic Democratic victory.
