Hispanic voters in Texas could provide Democrats with a crucial opening in this year’s midterm elections, after growing frustration over the economy and the Trump administration’s immigration policies. The group is central to closely fought Senate, gubernatorial and House contests across the state.
Donald Trump won about 55% of Hispanic voters in Texas in 2024, helping turn several traditionally Democratic counties in the Rio Grande Valley towards the Republicans. His performance marked a sharp break with assumptions that Hispanic voters would provide Democrats with a dependable electoral advantage.
But support for the president appears to have weakened. His approval rating among Latino voters stood at 24% in early October, while 51% said they intended to vote for a Democratic House candidate, compared with 24% for a Republican.
The shift could be decisive in the races for governor and the Senate, where Democratic candidates Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico are challenging Republican incumbents and candidates Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton.
A CBS News poll in October found that six in 10 Hispanic voters backed Mr Talarico over Mr Paxton. Hispanic voters supported Ms Hinojosa over Mr Abbott by a similar margin.
Texas Hispanic voters weigh economy and immigration
Hispanic Americans are also becoming an increasingly important part of the electorate. An estimated 39 million are eligible to vote nationally, around 5.2 million more than in 2022, while Hispanic voters account for more than 30% of Texas’s eligible electorate.
Gina Hinojosa said Democrats had lost support in 2024 because Mr Trump successfully presented himself as an opponent of a political system that voters believed had failed them.
“The reason why Trump won, and why he was able to capture the Latino vote in the Valley and in Texas, is because he said the system is rigged – and he’s right,” she said.
She added that voters were focused on whether politicians could make daily life more affordable, saying: “In this high-cost economy, people just want to know: are you going to work to make my life easier?”
Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha said rising prices, fuel costs and pressure on household finances were the leading concerns. He described Hispanic voters as increasingly willing to move between the two parties rather than forming a permanent bloc for either side.
“It’s not a realignment; it’s a dealignment,” Mr Rocha said.
Immigration enforcement is also contributing to the Democrats’ hopes. Representative Joaquin Castro said many Hispanic voters had been angered by the work of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, and by what he described as the targeting of Latino communities.
“They feel like they’ve been treated like they’re all criminals, and they’re pushing back,” Mr Castro said.
President Trump has rejected suggestions that his support among Hispanic voters is slipping. At a rally in Corpus Christi for Mr Paxton and other Republicans, he highlighted a fall in Hispanic American poverty to 13.9% last year from 15.1% in 2024, citing US Census Bureau figures.
“I won Hispanics,” Mr Trump said in mid-October. “I’ve done more than any other Republican in history. I got tremendous Hispanics.”
Republicans doubt a Democratic surge
Republican officials and allies argue that dissatisfaction with high prices does not necessarily translate into support for Democrats. Daniel Garza, president of the conservative Latino advocacy group the Libre Initiative, said he had seen little evidence of a pro-Democratic surge in South Texas.
“There is no pro-Democrat enthusiasm,” Mr Garza said, arguing that Democrats had not offered a clear plan for reducing prices. He said Latino men working in energy, law enforcement and federal agencies were unlikely to respond to the Democrats’ current message.
He suggested that Democratic gains were more likely among Latina women than Latino men, while religious beliefs and socially conservative views on issues such as abortion could continue to help Republicans.
Polling nevertheless shows Democrats with an advantage in party favourability among Hispanic voters nationally. A Pew Research Centre survey found that 53% held a favourable view of the Democratic Party, compared with 29% for the Republican Party.
Early voting in South Texas has also increased. Nearly 150,000 people voted during the first week in Hidalgo and Cameron counties, 63% more than during the comparable period in the 2022 midterms.
The rise in participation does not indicate which party those voters support. The two counties backed Mr Trump in 2024, although Democratic House candidates also won substantial support there, highlighting the region’s history of ticket-splitting.
The Rio Grande Valley includes several competitive House contests. Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz is facing Democrat Bobby Pulido, while Democratic Representative Vicente Gonzalez is running against Republican Eric Flores.
Ms De La Cruz said enforcement should target cartels and criminals rather than working immigrant families, but predicted that Texas would remain Republican. She also acknowledged that the party needed to address affordability and immigration.
Democrats have increased their Spanish-language outreach this campaign, including advertising during football broadcasts and a boxing match featuring Mexican star Canelo Álvarez. Campaigns have also worked with Latino social media influencers to reach Spanish-speaking audiences.
Republicans caution that increased turnout alone cannot be interpreted as a Democratic breakthrough. A senior GOP strategist said Hispanic voters could support Mr Talarico in one contest while backing Republicans further down the ballot.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, while its last Democratic senator was Lloyd Bentsen, elected in 1988. The results of this year’s contests will therefore test whether the state’s Hispanic electorate is beginning another shift — or simply demonstrating its willingness to change from one election to the next.
